Viability statement continued
Base Case scenario continued
•
The Base Case assumes that sales are not affected by these
factors during the going concern period;
•
online sales levels during the early part of FY23 have been
lower than expected. The Base Case assumes that online sales
improve from their recent levels but not to the level initially
expected, despite the fact that the Group plans to implement
measures to improve online sales;
•
the gross margin assumptions include provision for the
continuation for a longer period than initially expected of higher
than normal ocean container freight costs, until the end of FY23.
Thereafter it is assumed that any reduction in freight rates will,
broadly, be offset by a less favourable currency exchange rate
than the hedged rate during FY23;
•
the Base Case provides for known or expected inflationary
increases including those associated with significantly higher
electricity prices which are assumed to double and not reduce
during the forecast period, and wage rates including further
increases in the National Living Wage;
•
capital expenditure levels are in line with the Group’s strategic
plan, which would enable a reduction in capital expenditure in
the event of a Downside scenario occurring; and
•
the Base Case allows for the resumption of dividend payments.
Under the Base Case scenario, the Group’s forecasts show that
it will not draw on its bank facility at any point. Whilst it may
not be relevant given it is not envisaged that the facility would
be used under the Base Case scenario, nevertheless the Base
Case indicates that the financial covenants are complied with
at all times.
The output of the Base Case model scenario therefore indicates
that the Group would have sufficient financial resources to
continue to be viable over the forecast period.
Measures to maintain or increase liquidity
During the COVID-19 pandemic the Group demonstrated that it
was capable of taking measures to maintain or improve liquidity,
and subsequently, during FY22, the Group has continued to
generate positive cash flow.
If deemed necessary, mitigating actions would be taken in
response to a significant downturn in trading, which would
increase liquidity. These may include, for example, delaying and
reducing stock purchases, stock liquidation, reductions in capital
expenditure, the review of payment terms and the review of
dividend levels. Some of these potential mitigations have been
built into the Downside Case model, and some have been noted
as additional measures that may be taken in practice in the event
of that scenario, or worse, actually occurring.
Severe but plausible Downside Case scenario
The Downside Case makes the following assumptions to reflect
more adverse conditions compared to the Base Case:
•
store LFL sales are assumed to be lower than the Base Case
during the peak period prior to Christmas 2022, to allow for the
possibility that consumer spending is adversely affected for the
reasons described above. Recent store sales levels have been
slightly above the Base Case level;
•
online sales are assumed to be lower than in the Base Case,
reflecting the possibility that the recent performance is due to
external factors beyond our control, such as a shift in consumer
shopping patterns away from online sales, and/or the failure by
the Group to successfully implement some or all of its plans to
improve the online sales performance;
•
the gross margin assumptions are consistent with the Base Case,
which the Board believes already takes a sufficiently cautious
view of expected freight rates, even allowing for a severe but
plausible Downside scenario; and
•
volume related costs in the Downside Case are lowered where
they move directly with sales levels; for example, online fulfilment
and marketing costs are assumed to reduce to correspond with
the lower online sales. The model also reflects certain steps
which could be taken to mitigate the effect of lower sales levels,
depending on management’s assessment of the situation at the
time. These include adjustments to stock purchases, reducing
capital expenditure, reductions in headcount or labour usage,
a reduction in discounts allowed as part of the Group’s loyalty
scheme and suspending the payment of dividends.
Under the Downside Case scenario, due to the mitigations built into
the model, the Group’s forecasts show that it will not draw on its
bank facility. Again, whilst it may not be relevant if the facility is not
actually required, nevertheless the Downside Case also indicates
that the financial covenants are complied with.
Having considered the output of the Downside Case and the
additional mitigating steps available, the Board’s conclusion is that
the business would continue to have adequate resources to continue
in operation under this severe but plausible set of assumptions.
Consideration of more severe scenarios
Given the current rate of inflation and its potential impact on
consumer confidence and spending, the Board believes that
the Works value proposition positions it well to benefit from any
tendency consumers may have to trade down in pursuit of better
value. However, the Board also recognises that more severe
downside scenarios than those modelled might arise.
Accordingly, it has considered a range of more severe
possibilities than are reflected in the Downside Case, including
a 10% reduction in sales between January 2023 and April 2024
on the basis that consumers may prioritise Christmas, but cut
back on spending thereafter if their disposable incomes reduce
for a sustained period. In these circumstances, in addition to
the measures included in the Downside Case, further mitigating
measures would be required and are available, which when
implemented would generate additional profit and/or cash and
provide further liquidity headroom and/or further headroom in
relation to the financial covenants. Such measures could include
further reductions in capital expenditure and further reductions
in discretionary expenditure in areas such as travel, training and
professional fees.
Conclusion regarding viability
The current economic environment, characterised by higher
inflation than has been experienced for a number of years, and a
high level of uncertainty about how long the situation will persist
and whether it will become worse before it improves, creates a
higher than normal level of uncertainty with regards to the strength
of consumer spending. However, the Board’s assessment is that,
despite this, the overall level of risk is not as high as represented
by COVID-19, which resulted in a complete inability to operate the
majority of the Group’s business for significant periods of time. The
resilience demonstrated by the business during those periods, in
very challenging conditions, provides additional assurance about
its viability in the event of an extended economic downturn due to
high inflation etc.
Based on all of the above considerations, the Directors believe that
the business will remain viable for at least the forecast period.
TheWorks.co.uk plc Annual Report and Accounts 202246